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One Trade Caused a 180 in Bonds

Bond markets just bounced off their best levels of the morning after having been at the worst levels of the domestic session at 8:51am ET.

At 8:52am, one account made one large trade that shifted the entirety of bond market momentum for the day.  This showed up in the block trade screen at the CME as a medium-big purchase of long bonds (not even as big as the previous 2 block trades in 10yr futures).

2017-8-2 block

At 8:53, a far bigger trade came through regular channels (i.e. it wouldn't show up on the block trade screen, which refers to privately negotiated trades that happen outside the public exchange).  Whereas the 8:52am trade was 7483 contracts, the 8:53am volume swelled to 61338 for a single minute!  Not all of that will have been the big trade in question (but most of it!).

Since then, bonds continued rallying on a combination of follow-through momentum from trade, weaker stocks, and comments from Fed's Bullard (who repeated that rate hikes were no longer needed).  A few moments ago, the US Treasury released a statement saying it is still looking at ultralong bonds.  This caused the most recent spike seen in the chart.  Bonds have recovered a bit in the 2 minutes since that chart was clipped, but 2.25% looks like the floor to beat for now.

2017-8-2 update

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 6.0
99.81
-0.01
UMBS 6.5
101.65
0.00
10 YR
4.9181
-0.0118
Pricing as of: 11/2 7:59AM EST
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