Mortgage rates walked back a decent chunk of their recent improvements today.  This claim runs counter to almost any other coverage you'll see, but I'm right and they're wrong.  Actually to be fair, I'm right in a timely way and they're right in a not-so-timely way.

At issue is the weekly release of Freddie Mac's mortgage rate survey, which only captures responses from the first half of any given week.  Big market movement from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning is never represented in the Thursday release.  Despite that, media outlets rely heavily on Freddie's data to craft their customary once-a-week mortgage rate pieces.  Today's examples include multiple iterations of "the lowest rates in 3 years," etc.

It's true that rates were at their lowest levels in 3 years, but it was only true yesterday.  Today's rates are sharply higher after a slew of stronger economic reports and an update on US/China trade talks.  You'd have to go back to last Wednesday to see the average lender offering anything higher.

While rates may be the highest in just over a week, "high" is a relative term.  Taking the last 4 trading days out of the equation, today would be the best day for rates in 3 years with most lenders still able to offer 30yr fixed rates in the mid-3% range.  Tomorrow brings significant risk in the form of the big jobs report--one of the most important pieces of economic data month in and month out.