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Not Just Another Reprice Alert

Things are quickly getting serious for bonds.  While the sell-off may bounce at any time, we've seen enough weakness to offer a profound comment on the current state of play for bonds.

Much of the recent rally was predicated on fears of burgeoning economic weakness (recall EU Markit PMIs and US PMIs added significantly to the post-Fed rally 2 weeks ago).

The current week of econ data stood a chance to confirm or reject the portion of the rally that can be chalked up to economic fears. The fact that the data was almost exclusively stronger today (not Retail Sales, but with the revision to last month, it was still net-positive) is not good.

10yr yields are up and over the 2.47% technical level at 2.48+.  Buyers are not yet looking eager to step in front of this train.  MBS are down a full 3/8ths of a point already, with more than a quarter point since rate sheets.  Reprices are likely.  But in the bigger picture, the momentum is suggesting today won't be the last day of selling unless the econ data shifts markedly and perhaps remarkably.  

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.26
-0.37
UMBS 6.0
99.27
-0.32
UMBS 6.5
101.09
-0.21
2 YR
4.9883
+0.0530
10 YR
4.6471
+0.0577
Pricing as of: 4/18 2:13PM EST
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