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Here's Why We're Weaker (Breaking Down Key Changes and the DOTS)

Check out the comparison to the last statement for more details, but I'll recap what I see as the highlights here.

1. Economic activity now rising at a "moderate" pace.  Last time it was "solid."  (Dovish)

2. New sentence suggests household spending and business investment have "moderated from the strong fourth-quarter readings."  (Dovish)

3. New sentence: "The economic outlook has strengthened in recent months."  (Hawkish)

4. Economic activity will expand at a moderate pace "in the medium term."  The part in quotes is new.  Are they saying they're willing to wait a bit for economic expansion?  Or that the expansion won't be long-lived?  Perhaps a reporter will ask Powell in a few minutes.  It could be taken either way.  (Neutral) 

That's it as far as the statement itself goes.  How about the dots?

1.  Simply put, there was clear upward migration in the dots.  They suggest a much stronger possibility of 4 hikes in 2018, even though the median viewpoint remains for only 3.  The following chart is a mark-up of my new favorite view of the dots from IFR Markets.  It only shows the 2018 column from the Fed's regular dot plot, but in so doing, is able to track the changes to the 2018 column over time.  Within each section, the dots may fall in increments of .125, .375, .625, and .875.  Last time, 2.125 (3 hikes) had the lion's share.  This time, it shares an equal share of dots with 2.375% (4 hikes).  Notably, it only would have taken one more dot moving up to 2.375% to create a "median" view of 4 hikes in 2018.  This is the reason bonds have sold off this afternoon.  Without the dots, the statement itself would have been pretty friendly for bonds.

2018-3-21 update2

MBS / Treasury Market Data

UMBS 5.5
97.30
-0.01
UMBS 6.0
99.30
0.00
UMBS 6.5
101.11
+0.02
2 YR
4.9793
-0.0101
10 YR
4.6238
-0.0027
Pricing as of: 4/19 2:07PM EST
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